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From Baby Boom to Baby Bust

For most of the 20th century, population debates focused on rapid growth, “overpopulation” and pressure on resources. Today, the story is shifting. Global total fertility has more than halved since around 1950, falling from about 5 children per woman to roughly 2.2 in 2021. According to recent UN and Lancet‑linked analyses, over half of all countries already have fertility below the “replacement” level of about 2.1 children per woman needed to keep populations stable without immigration.

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As countries become richer and improve living conditions, they move from a pattern dominated by infectious diseases and high mortality to one dominated by chronic (degenerative) diseases and lower mortality. This shift is closely linked to changes in demography (falling death rates, then falling birth rates), urbanisation, and improvements in health care, nutrition and hygiene.

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Geographers measure population change by looking at how many people are born, how many die, and how many move in or out of a place. In other words, population change is driven by three main components: fertility, mortality and migration.​

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