Republicans are now arguing that their aggressive mid-decade redistricting campaign could preserve their House majority even in an environment where history is usually not on their side. According to a new memo from the National Republican Congressional Committee, newly redrawn maps have reduced the number of competitive districts and forced Democrats to compete in more Republican-leaning territory. Democrats dismiss that analysis, arguing that strong special election results and voter dissatisfaction with President Trump still favor a House takeover. My gut is still that Democrats will take the House. I do think it’s going to be closer than people think, if just because we’re in an intensely polarized country.

Republicans are still looking for the why. That’s what they haven’t found yet. Why am I excited? Historically, at least in the Trump administration, it has been things like immigration. But you can’t run the next election on the thing you solved in the last election. I know there are a lot of frustrated conservatives who say we should be talking about the fact that we closed the border. What have you done for me lately? That is the refrain from voters. Republicans are going to gin up the culture war, and they’re going to point at Democrats and say they’ve learned none of their lessons. Turning the keys back over to them is not going to get you anything. It’s going to get you more impeachments, more nonsense, and less of what you want. Democrats, meanwhile, will say we have an out-of-control oligarch president and we need some kind of emergency brake, so give us back control of the House.

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With gas prices continuing to fall, it’s not crazy to think Republicans could find some footing. The national average fell below four dollars, according to AAA. A month ago it was around $4.50. We are looking at a collapsing gas price. We have been told throughout the history of commodities that gas shoots up like a rocket and falls like a feather. We are seeing it fall pretty quickly. If the price of a barrel returns to the levels we saw before the war, now that the memorandum of understanding has been signed and there is free flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, you’re going to see lower gas prices. That’s usually what people rely on, and it’s also the hedge against inflation.

Cheap gas had always been the Trump administration’s hedge against tariff inflation. The argument was that while you might pay more on imports, gas would remain extraordinarily low. Obviously that promise was broken with the Iran war. Now it seems that we are at least in some phase of calm and negotiation, a controversial one. My point of view on any American activity in the Middle East—some may even say adventure in the Middle East—is that it almost always ends with America having to tell Israel no. Israel is usually very excited about having us in the region because, in general, we agree with Israel on most everything that happens in the Middle East. But they will always want us to do more, and eventually we usually have to tell them we are not going to do everything they want. That is just the way I understand the region.

Is this memorandum of understanding wise? I read the text that was released yesterday. It’s a pretty big give to allow Iran to sell oil. It’s going to help the gas price, but it is a pretty big give. The carrots we are offering are big and juicy, but they are not promised up front. Everything is contingent on what happens from here. For Republicans, the best-case scenario is relative economic calm and Donald Trump being seen as a game-changing president that people might not always agree with but who is moving things forward. If we’re talking about jobs numbers and things that are forward-facing, Republicans are probably winning the argument. If we’re talking about side issues and distractions, Democrats are winning the argument. I still think it’s going to be very, very, very hard for Republicans to keep the House. But again, this is a very polarized country, and the biggest thing Republicans need is a reason to get their people excited.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:01:57 - Republicans and the House

00:12:19 - Obama

00:15:51 - Thomas Kean Jr.

00:19:36 - Iran

00:24:43 - Kirk Bado on Primaries

01:11:10 - Wrap-up

The memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran was apparently signed over the weekend, but the text remains a mystery to most. Donald Trump says he’ll release it and even read it himself so nobody can misunderstand it. If it’s such good news, though, why not put it out right now? Israel isn’t a fan of it, nor are those who believe we’ve abandoned the Iranian people by making a deal with the IRGC. At the same time, there may be a silent majority that cares less about the politics and more about the price at the pump. And that’s what caught my attention.

Since the beginning of May, with Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, gas prices in the United States have fallen. Not by a little, but by a lot. The national average has gone from roughly $4.50 a gallon to $3.50. That happened while the strait was closed and before any memorandum of understanding was announced. The White House wasn’t bragging about it. They weren’t loudly telling Iran that the closure wasn’t working. That made me think something else was going on.

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After digging through it, I’ve been able to dig up a few explanations. The most public, I’d argue, was the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The Department of Energy released more than 53 million barrels as part of a broader international effort, bringing the reserve down to its lowest level since 1983. There were also reports that the United States was helping move oil out of the Gulf using some of the same techniques Iran has historically used to evade sanctions. American production remained high. Every hint of a peace deal pushed oil prices lower. Global demand softened. China sharply reduced its purchases on the open market. Alternative routes around Hormuz became more important. Gasoline inventories improved. All of it pushed prices down.

If I rank the reasons, peace-talk optimism sits at the top. Strategic reserve releases bought time. American-supported workarounds moved real barrels. Demand destruction, especially with China stepping back, reduced pressure. Improved gasoline inventories helped. Some of the more speculative theories include sanctions waivers for Iranian oil, greater tolerance for shadow-fleet shipments, and alternate export routes making Hormuz less decisive than Iran hoped.

What stands out is that there were more American incentives to get to the table than Iranian ones. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is a temporary band-aid. Smuggling oil out of the Gulf is risky. Every day the Strait of Hormuz remained closed carried economic and military risks. That helps explain why the White House wanted a deal. Iran had incentives too, especially if China was no longer buying at previous levels, but the balance of pressure appears different than many expected.

My assumption remains what it has been for weeks: there are multiple power centers inside Iran, and the biggest question is whether any deal can survive them. The Ayatollah is gone, much of Iran’s leadership structure has been shattered, and the IRGC itself appears divided between factions willing to make a deal and hardliners who want to keep fighting. The memorandum of understanding may give us a clearer picture when we finally see it. Until then, the biggest question isn’t whether a deal exists. It’s whether anyone on the Iranian side can actually enforce it.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:02:38 - Iran and Gas Prices

00:31:47 - Update

00:32:04 - UFC 250 Terrorism Plot

00:37:46 - Russia-Ukraine

00:39:48 - Primaries

00:42:48 - Interview with Maria Curi

01:11:46 - Wrap-up

The situation with Iran continues to feel like Groundhog Day, except this time, believe it or not, there may actually be movement.

Earlier this week, I mentioned that I had heard from people in the know that the United States military was coiled to strike Iran and was looking for either provocation or justification to resume major military activity. That appeared to happen when Iran shot down an Apache helicopter that was escorting oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. We also learned that more than 100 million barrels of oil had moved through the strait under U.S. protection over the last month.

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One of the reasons that caught my attention is that gas prices in the United States have been falling pretty dramatically. It was a head-scratcher. If the Strait of Hormuz was effectively stalled, then what explained the drop? Was it a global rerouting of supply? Was there a China component that had been negotiated and never publicly heralded? I didn’t know then, and I don’t know now, but the announcement about oil shipments at least provides part of the picture.

What’s more interesting is what happened next. After one night of military strikes, the second night was canceled. Donald Trump said that’s because we’re at the point of a deal, one that has supposedly been signed off on by all available parties in the region. It appears to resemble the memorandum of understanding that’s been floating around for weeks, although nobody really knows because we still haven’t seen the text. We don’t know if it’s real. We don’t even know exactly what it says.

The administration’s definition of success has been fairly consistent: Iran gives up its nuclear material and removes the nuclear threat. If that’s actually in the agreement, then it would be meaningfully different from what came before. The obvious question is what Iran gets in return. The reporting and public comments suggest that Tehran is focused on access to frozen assets and getting money quickly. Whether that money goes directly to Iran, whether it’s routed through humanitarian aid, and what conditions are attached are all questions that still need answers.

The strongest sign that something may actually be happening is coming from inside Iran. Reports indicate that FARS, the IRGC-controlled news agency, is acknowledging that a draft memorandum of understanding exists, that the United States has approved it, and that Iran is likely to do the same. The bigger question is whether any agreement can actually be enforced. Iran’s leadership appears splintered. We’ve seen officials make commitments before, only to have military figures or IRGC commanders move in a different direction. That’s why the real issue isn’t whether a deal can be signed. It’s whether anybody in Iran has enough authority to keep it.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:02:48 - Iran

00:08:38 - Interview with Karol Markowicz

00:36:19 - Update

00:37:19 - DeSantis and AI

00:42:56 - FISA

00:44:42 - Director of National Intelligence

00:47:17 - Interview with Karol Markowicz, con’t

01:07:27 - Wrap-up