Why the VC Hype Cycle Always Gets It Wrong | VC Roundtable | E2307 cover art

Why the VC Hype Cycle Always Gets It Wrong | VC Roundtable | E2307

Why the VC Hype Cycle Always Gets It Wrong | VC Roundtable | E2307

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This Week In Startups is made possible by:CLA - www.claconnect.com/withyouNorthwest Registered Agent - www.northwestregisteredagent.com/twistAgree.com - www.agree.comToday’s show:Forget the triple-triple-double-double-double; the new bar for startups hoping to raise venture capital has reached the stratosphere, though our venture panel is worried that startups are focusing too much on today’s problems that may not become companies tomorrow. During a lively VC roundtable, Cowboy’s Aileen Lee, Floodgate’s Mike Maples, and Lerer Hippeau’s Ben Lerer joined Alex to dig into exiting pre-AI startups, rising valuations, token spend, why they are keeping their funds small, and whether the government just tripped OpenAI and Anthropic!Guest Links:Aileen Lee https://x.com/aileenleeCowboy VC https://cowboy.vcMike Maples https://x.com/m2jrFloodgate https://www.floodgate.comBene Lerer https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjlererLere Hippeau https://www.lererhippeau.comTimestamps:0:00 Aileen Lee, Mike Maples, and Ben Lerer join the show5:13 Venture liquidity returns: what SpaceX/Stripe distributions mean for LPs9:13 Bending Spoons prices IPO at $29/share, roughly $18.4B valuation10:31 Agree.com - Stop chasing invoices and automate your entire contract-to-cash stack. Go to https://agree.com and tell them Jason sent you to get 50% off for life!12:09 "Companies get bought, not sold" — Ben on taking first offers seriously17:41 Plaud: If your work depends on conversations — interviews, meetings, calls — you need a Plaud NotePin. You can check it out at https://Plaud.ai/twist and use code TWIST for 10% off!19:34 Mutiny's burn-the-boats AI pivot with Jaleh Rezaei20:19 Northwest Registered Agent - Get more when you start your business with Northwest. In 10 clicks and 10 minutes, you can form your company and walk away with a real business identity — Learn more at https://www.northwestregisteredagent.com/twist22:15 Mike's KeepSafe story: the "rule of 70" and profit-first companies25:12 The new growth bar: 5x, 4x replaces triple-triple-double-double28:55 Fund size is your strategy: why Floodgate and Lerer Hippeau stay small30:11 CLA - Innovation takes balance. CLA's CPAs, consultants, and wealth advisors can help you get from startup to where you want to end up. Get started now at https://www.claconnect.com/withyou37:39 The $100M Series A: Starcloud, General Intuition, Scale Cognition, Scout AI40:35 King-making rounds and why mega-seeds destroy optionality54:11 Open-weight models: the GLM-5.2 moment and going model-agnostic55:30 Why fine-tuning open models is a treadmill, with Cursor/Kimi as an example1:03:28 Grading the Trump administration on Mythos and Fable1:06:33 Rising anti-AI sentiment, the wealth gap, and lessons from social media1:11:43 Raising kids in the post-intelligence era1:12:35 Where to find the panel and what each firm is investing inSubscribe to the TWiST500 newsletter: https://ticker.thisweekinstartups.comCheck out the TWIST500: https://www.twist500.comSubscribe to This Week in Startups on Apple: https://rb.gy/v19fcpFollow Lon:X: https://x.com/lonsFollow Alex:X: https://x.com/alexLinkedIn: ⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/alexwilhelmFollow Jason:X: https://twitter.com/JasonLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jasoncalacanisCheck out all our partner offers: https://partners.launch.co/Great TWIST interviews: Will Guidara, Eoghan McCabe, Steve Huffman, Brian Chesky, Bob Moesta, Aaron Levie, Sophia Amoruso, Reid Hoffman, Frank Slootman, Billy McFarlandCheck out Jason’s suite of newsletters: https://substack.com/@calacanisFollow TWiST:Twitter: https://twitter.com/TWiStartupsYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/thisweekinInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thisweekinstartupsTikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thisweekinstartupsSubstack: https://twistartups.substack.com
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